LAKE CITY, Fla. — The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins today, June 1, and runs through November 30. While forecasters are predicting a quieter-than-average season across the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of America, and Caribbean Sea, emergency officials are reminding residents that it only takes one storm to make it a dangerous year. (NOAA)
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season, with a 55% chance of below-average activity, a 35% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of above-normal activity. (NOAA)
NOAA’s forecast calls for:
- 8 to 14 named storms
- 3 to 6 hurricanes
- 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) (WDRB)
For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. (WDIV)
Why Is the Forecast Lower This Year?
Meteorologists point to the expected development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean as the primary reason for the reduced forecast. El Niño typically increases wind shear across the Atlantic basin, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen into hurricanes. (Reuters)
However, forecasters caution that lower storm totals do not eliminate the risk to Florida or the Gulf Coast. Some of the most destructive hurricanes in history have occurred during otherwise quiet seasons. (The Washington Post)
Gulf Coast Residents Should Stay Prepared
North Florida residents should not let the below-average forecast create a false sense of security. The Gulf of Mexico remains capable of producing rapidly intensifying storms, and tropical systems can form close to shore with little warning. (Houston Chronicle)
Emergency management officials recommend reviewing hurricane plans now, checking emergency supplies, and ensuring important documents are protected before any storms threaten the area. (Axios)
Historically, the busiest part of hurricane season occurs from mid-August through October, with September serving as the climatological peak. (AMS Headlines)
The Bottom Line
While the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be less active than recent years, Florida residents know that forecasts only tell part of the story. Whether a season produces 8 storms or 18, it only takes one hurricane making landfall to leave a lasting impact.
Now is the time to prepare—not when a storm is already in the Gulf.